My takeaway from both of those sources, and the many that they cite for their analysis, is that we probably waited too long to act in the U.S., and thus are probably in for a world of hurt in a lot of the country.
Specifically, by world of hurt I mean hospitals being over capacity, leading to many people dying of the disease itself, and many more dying because the hospitals are so busy treating COVID-19.
Based on the math in the Hammer and Dance article above, it looks like the 19,772 cases and 279 deaths reported in the US as of March 20 mean there are actually between 223,000 and 535,000 current infections in the US.
That is a scary number, but it’s even scarier if it keeps doubling every couple of days like it has in New York and Washington state. A drive around Texas today convinced me there are plenty of people not taking this seriously for it to keep spreading pretty fast.
I don’t want to be a downer, but if I had to take an educated guess, I would predict multiple millions of US deaths by the time this is “over” in the next couple of months. If that sounds high, read the article above and get back to me with your take.
Bottom line: If you hadn’t previously taken the advice to stay home seriously, go ahead and do that.
Every time someone reads it, it runs a new simulation! Crazy. Go give it a try.